Robust Errors

“For the robust, an error is information,” Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® currently projects S&P 500 annualized returns of 5% over the next decade. This compares poorly with the historical 10% average annual return for the index. To make matters worse, expected volatility is still unchanged at 17%. While risk is projected to be the same for investors, returns are expected to be half as good.

Why does Vanguard expect returns between 2023 and 2033 to be worse than average? Because valuations are elevated. Any measure you scrutinize that has demonstrated predictive power is currently priced materially higher than average: price-to-sales; market cap-to-GDP; Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE); etc.

But does this information about the future help us in the short term?

“Valuations… are not predictive over the shorter term. Yes, over the long run valuations are predictive of performance. But you can have extended valuations for an extended period of time. And the reality is that the biggest issue most investors face is not participating in the equity market,” Kristina Hooper, Invesco, Chief Global Strategist on Blomberg Surveillance 1/20/20

Conventional Wall Street wisdom, we’ll let you be the judge of what that is worth, says that long-term forecasts tell you nothing about the short term. At MKAM ETF we see things differently.

How can we have useful models that forecast performance a decade from now, but tell you nothing about the short or intermediate term? After all, to get to 2032, you travel through 2024, 2025, 2026, etc. We believe that the journey you have already partially completed informs the rest of the trip.

Consider that five years ago, Shiller’s CAPE was 31.2. This is higher than the CAPE that has warranted the historical average of 10% per year annualized returns the S&P 500 has averaged over time. Further, it was above the 26.1 average in the post Greenspan era, from 1988 through today. It would be reasonable to expect the next decade of returns to be lackluster for investors who paid a premium to own stocks on May 31, 2018.


Source: Robert Shiller

Contrary to expectations, the S&P 500 has generated 11% per year returns since then, even higher than the historical average. In fact, in just five years, the S&P 500 has already earned all the returns the CAPE model forecasted over the next decade, given its starting valuation. The next five years must generate negative returns for the prediction of five years ago to prove accurate. To us, the error of the previous forecast is not wrong, it is useful information.

A similar analysis of CAPE predictions of 7, 8, and 9 years ago leads you to the same conclusion. The S&P 500 has already pulled forward future returns into what is now the past. In a world where investors can get 5% returns on their cash, it seems prudent for risk-conscious investors to reduce their exposure to the S&P 500.

MKAM ETF remains 50% exposed to the stock market and 50% in short-term US Treasury Bills earning 5%. The allocation to the stock market comes from our trend discipline only. While the stock market remains in a bullish mood, we continue to participate partway in the gains. However, heeding accurate model forecasts that are only part way towards completing their full cycles has us watching the exit with one eye. For investors that seek to avoid large drawdowns, we suggest taking the right lessons from the best valuation models at our disposal. Better to learn from one error, than to make

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Important Information

The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information is contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling   +1.929.224.2706. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Investments involve risk. Principal loss is possible.

The Fund is actively-managed and is subject to the risk that the strategy may not produce the intended results. The Fund is new and has a limited operating history to evaluate.

Risk of Investing in Other ETFs. Because the Fund may invest in other ETFs, the Fund’s investment performance is impacted by the investment performance of the selected underlying ETFs. An investment in the Fund is subject to the risks associated with the ETFs that then-currently comprise the Fund’s portfolio. At times, certain of the segments of the market represented by the Fund’s underlying ETFs may be out of favor and underperform other segments. The Fund will indirectly pay a proportional share of the expenses of the underlying ETFs in which it invests (including operating expenses and management fees), which are identified in the fee schedule above as “Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses.”

Options Risk.
Selling or Writing Options Risk. Writing option contracts can result in losses that exceed the seller’s initial investment and may lead to additional turnover and higher tax liability. The risk involved in writing a call option is that there could be an increase in the market value of the reference asset. A reference asset may be an index or ETF. If this occurs, the call option could be exercised and the reference asset would then be sold at a lower price than its current market value. In the case of cash settled call options, the call seller would be required to purchase the call option at a price that is higher than the original sales price for such call option. Similarly, while writing call options can reduce the risk of owning the reference asset, such a strategy limits the opportunity to profit from an increase in the market value of the reference asset in exchange for up-front cash at the time of selling the call option. The risk involved in writing a put option is that there could be a decrease in the market value of the reference asset. If this occurs, the put option could be exercised and the reference asset would then be sold at a higher price than its current market value. In the case of cash settled put options, the put seller would be required to purchase the put option at a price that is higher than the original sales price for such put option.
Buying or Purchasing Options Risk. If a call or put option is not sold when it has remaining value and if the market price of the reference asset, in the case of a call option, remains less than or equal to the exercise price, or, in the case of a put option, remains equal to or greater than the exercise price, the buyer will lose its entire investment in the call or put option. Since many factors influence the value of an option, including the price of the reference asset, the exercise price, the time to expiration, the interest rate, and the dividend rate of the reference asset, the buyer’s success in implementing an option buying strategy may depend on an ability to predict movements in the prices of individual assets, fluctuations in markets, and movements in interest rates. There is no assurance that a liquid market will exist when the buyer seeks to close out any option position. When an option is purchased to hedge against price movements in an reference asset, the price of the option may move more or less than the price of the reference asset.
Box Spread Risk. A Box Spread is the combination of a synthetic long position coupled with an offsetting synthetic short position through a combination of options contracts on a reference asset such as index, equity security or ETF with the same expiration date. A Box Spread typically consists of (4) four option positions two of which represent the synthetic long and two representing the synthetic short. If one or more of these individual option positions are modified or closed separately prior to the option contract’s expiration, then the Box Spread may no longer effectively eliminate risk tied to reference asset’s movement. Furthermore, the Box Spread’s value is derived in the market and is in part, based on the time until the options comprising the Box Spread expire and the prevailing market interest rates. If the Fund sells a Box Spread prior to its expiration, then the Fund may incur a loss. The Fund’s ability to profit from Box Spreads is dependent on the availability and willingness of other market participants to sell Box Spreads to the Fund at competitive prices.
FLEX Options Risk. FLEX Options are exchange-traded options contracts with uniquely customizable terms like exercise price, style, and expiration date. Due to their customization and potentially unique terms, FLEX Options may be less liquid than other securities, such as standard exchange listed options. In less liquid markets for FLEX Options, the Fund may have difficulty closing out certain FLEX Option positions at desired times and prices. The value of FLEX Options will be affected by, among others, changes in the reference asset price, changes in actual and implied interest rates, changes in the actual and implied volatility of the reference asset and the remaining time until the FLEX Options expire. The value of the FLEX Options will be determined based upon market quotations or using other recognized pricing methods. During periods of reduced market liquidity or in the absence of readily available market quotations for the holdings of the Fund, the ability of the Fund to value the FLEX Options becomes more difficult and the judgment of the

Large-Capitalization Companies Risk. Large-capitalization companies may trail the returns of the overall stock market. Large-capitalization stocks tend to go through cycles of doing better – or worse – than the stock market in general.

Derivatives Risk. A derivative is any financial instrument whose value is based on, and determined by, another asset, rate or index (e.g., stock options). Unfavorable changes in the value of the reference asset, rate or index may cause sudden losses.

Counterparty Risk. Counterparty risk is the risk that a counterparty to a financial instrument held by the Fund or by a special purpose or structured vehicle invested in by the Fund may become insolvent or otherwise fail to perform its obligations, and the Fund may obtain no or limited recovery of its investment, and any recovery may be significantly delayed. Exchange listed options, including FLEX Options, are issued and guaranteed for settlement by the Options Clearing Corporation (“OCC”). The Fund’s investments are at risk that the OCC will be unable or unwilling to perform its obligations under the option contract terms. In the unlikely event that the OCC becomes insolvent or is otherwise unable to meet its settlement obligations, the Fund could suffer significant losses.

Leverage Risk. Leverage risk refers to the potential for increased volatility and losses in a portfolio due to the use of derivatives or other financial instruments that may magnify gains and losses beyond the initial investment. The Fund will utilize derivatives, such as options, to gain exposure to certain assets or markets with a smaller initial investment.

New Fund Risk. The Fund is a recently organized investment company with no operating history. As a result, prospective investors have no track record or history on which to base their investment decision. There can be no assurance that the Fund will grow to or maintain an economically viable size.

ETFs may trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value. ETF shares may only be redeemed at NAV by authorized participants in large creation units. There can be no guarantee that an active trading market for shares will exist. The trading of shares may incur brokerage.

This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. We make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein including third-party data sources. The views expressed are as of the publication date and subject to change at any time. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication without express written permission. References to other funds should not to be interpreted as an offer or recommendation of these securities.

The Fund is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. The fund’s investment advisor is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect.

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