A Smoother Ride

Well I’m accustomed to a smooth ride
Or maybe I’m a dog who’s lost it’sbite
I don’t expect to be treated like a fool no more
I don’t expect to sleep through the night
Some people say a lie’s a lie’s a lie
But I say why
Why deny the obvious child?
-Paul Simon, “Obvious Child”

The S&P 500[1] reached an all-time high of 4,793 on December 29, 2021. Soon after the market achieved this milestone, the Federal Reserve began their well-telegraphed program of raising interest rates. While the Fed attempted to end their Great Financial Crisis induced zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2018, only to relinquish as markets deteriorated quickly, this time their hand was forced by the first serious inflation in 40 years.


Source: US Treasury

The stock market fell as a result. At one point, the market was down by -25%. After a somewhat sustained market rally, the stock market closed -13% below its all-time high on 4/28/2023.


Source: S&P Global

After the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate from 0% at the end of 2021, to 5% today, Treasury Bills are the one asset class currently offering expected returns greater than their historical averages. While an investor in US-Treasury Bills historically earned 3.7% per year, today they can receive 5.2% for lending their money to the US Government for 3 months. The downward sloping yield curve is the bond market’s vote that the Fed has overdone it and the economy cannot stay healthy with a 5% risk-free rate. The 10-Year US Treasury yield sits at 3.4% compared to a historical average of 4.9%. Still below average, but materially better than the paltry 1.5% on 12/31/2021. That financial institutions like Silicon Valley Bank rushed in to earn 1.5% instead of waiting for 3.6% was a big reason why they went bust. They weren’t the only ones who grew impatient.


Source: “Triumph of the Optimists”, Dimson and Marsh; US Treasury; Vanguard

Similarly, expected returns in the stock market have improved markedly, but remain well below historical averages. After generating returns above historical averages for the past 7-to-10 years, the market stands poised to generate below average returns over the next decade.
There are two ways that 5.4% can get back to the historically observed 10% return. Firstly, earnings growth can simply outpace S&P 500 price appreciation to the point that the price on the market is eventually justified by the fundamentals. Or, the market can take a significant downturn to get much cheaper quickly. For example, if the S&P 500 fell by approximately -30% before the end of the year, the expected return would rise to the historical average. How likely is it that the market would fall by 30% versus slowly growing into its current, inflated price? The stock market fell by that much or more in the DotCom Crash of 2001; the Great Financial Crisis of 2008; and the Covid crash of 2020. The ending of 13 years of ZIRP seems equally momentous.
We don’t know for certain which path the market will take to start to offer higher returns. Or, even if it ever will. Butwe do know that the risk that it will fall by an unacceptable amount for our investors remains above average.
Investors maintaining half of their normal stock market exposure makes sense to us. Being able to generate 5% in US Treasuries with virtually no risk and almost no volatility is superior to us than attempting to earn the same in the stock market with much higher volatility.The stock market’s optimism disagrees with the pessimism of the bond market. We are inclined to believe the bond market. But we are not doctrinaires. We are open to the idea that the stock market is correct. Consequently, it makes sense to maintain some exposure to the stock market, especially when that exposure is governed by trend. Historically, trend following has done a good job of getting out of the market early during pronounced corrections.
It is historically unusual that you can receive the same expected returns in 3-month US Treasury Bills as you can in the S&P 500. We do not expect this situation to last for very long. Until then, it’s wise for investors to tread carefully. And demand greater returns for taking more risk.

[1] Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an index of the 500 largest U.S. public companies. It measures companies’ size by their market capitalization.

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Important Information

The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information is contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling   +1.929.224.2706. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Investments involve risk. Principal loss is possible.

The Fund is actively-managed and is subject to the risk that the strategy may not produce the intended results. The Fund is new and has a limited operating history to evaluate.

Risk of Investing in Other ETFs. Because the Fund may invest in other ETFs, the Fund’s investment performance is impacted by the investment performance of the selected underlying ETFs. An investment in the Fund is subject to the risks associated with the ETFs that then-currently comprise the Fund’s portfolio. At times, certain of the segments of the market represented by the Fund’s underlying ETFs may be out of favor and underperform other segments. The Fund will indirectly pay a proportional share of the expenses of the underlying ETFs in which it invests (including operating expenses and management fees), which are identified in the fee schedule above as “Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses.”

Options Risk.
Selling or Writing Options Risk. Writing option contracts can result in losses that exceed the seller’s initial investment and may lead to additional turnover and higher tax liability. The risk involved in writing a call option is that there could be an increase in the market value of the reference asset. A reference asset may be an index or ETF. If this occurs, the call option could be exercised and the reference asset would then be sold at a lower price than its current market value. In the case of cash settled call options, the call seller would be required to purchase the call option at a price that is higher than the original sales price for such call option. Similarly, while writing call options can reduce the risk of owning the reference asset, such a strategy limits the opportunity to profit from an increase in the market value of the reference asset in exchange for up-front cash at the time of selling the call option. The risk involved in writing a put option is that there could be a decrease in the market value of the reference asset. If this occurs, the put option could be exercised and the reference asset would then be sold at a higher price than its current market value. In the case of cash settled put options, the put seller would be required to purchase the put option at a price that is higher than the original sales price for such put option.
Buying or Purchasing Options Risk. If a call or put option is not sold when it has remaining value and if the market price of the reference asset, in the case of a call option, remains less than or equal to the exercise price, or, in the case of a put option, remains equal to or greater than the exercise price, the buyer will lose its entire investment in the call or put option. Since many factors influence the value of an option, including the price of the reference asset, the exercise price, the time to expiration, the interest rate, and the dividend rate of the reference asset, the buyer’s success in implementing an option buying strategy may depend on an ability to predict movements in the prices of individual assets, fluctuations in markets, and movements in interest rates. There is no assurance that a liquid market will exist when the buyer seeks to close out any option position. When an option is purchased to hedge against price movements in an reference asset, the price of the option may move more or less than the price of the reference asset.
Box Spread Risk. A Box Spread is the combination of a synthetic long position coupled with an offsetting synthetic short position through a combination of options contracts on a reference asset such as index, equity security or ETF with the same expiration date. A Box Spread typically consists of (4) four option positions two of which represent the synthetic long and two representing the synthetic short. If one or more of these individual option positions are modified or closed separately prior to the option contract’s expiration, then the Box Spread may no longer effectively eliminate risk tied to reference asset’s movement. Furthermore, the Box Spread’s value is derived in the market and is in part, based on the time until the options comprising the Box Spread expire and the prevailing market interest rates. If the Fund sells a Box Spread prior to its expiration, then the Fund may incur a loss. The Fund’s ability to profit from Box Spreads is dependent on the availability and willingness of other market participants to sell Box Spreads to the Fund at competitive prices.
FLEX Options Risk. FLEX Options are exchange-traded options contracts with uniquely customizable terms like exercise price, style, and expiration date. Due to their customization and potentially unique terms, FLEX Options may be less liquid than other securities, such as standard exchange listed options. In less liquid markets for FLEX Options, the Fund may have difficulty closing out certain FLEX Option positions at desired times and prices. The value of FLEX Options will be affected by, among others, changes in the reference asset price, changes in actual and implied interest rates, changes in the actual and implied volatility of the reference asset and the remaining time until the FLEX Options expire. The value of the FLEX Options will be determined based upon market quotations or using other recognized pricing methods. During periods of reduced market liquidity or in the absence of readily available market quotations for the holdings of the Fund, the ability of the Fund to value the FLEX Options becomes more difficult and the judgment of the

Large-Capitalization Companies Risk. Large-capitalization companies may trail the returns of the overall stock market. Large-capitalization stocks tend to go through cycles of doing better – or worse – than the stock market in general.

Derivatives Risk. A derivative is any financial instrument whose value is based on, and determined by, another asset, rate or index (e.g., stock options). Unfavorable changes in the value of the reference asset, rate or index may cause sudden losses.

Counterparty Risk. Counterparty risk is the risk that a counterparty to a financial instrument held by the Fund or by a special purpose or structured vehicle invested in by the Fund may become insolvent or otherwise fail to perform its obligations, and the Fund may obtain no or limited recovery of its investment, and any recovery may be significantly delayed. Exchange listed options, including FLEX Options, are issued and guaranteed for settlement by the Options Clearing Corporation (“OCC”). The Fund’s investments are at risk that the OCC will be unable or unwilling to perform its obligations under the option contract terms. In the unlikely event that the OCC becomes insolvent or is otherwise unable to meet its settlement obligations, the Fund could suffer significant losses.

Leverage Risk. Leverage risk refers to the potential for increased volatility and losses in a portfolio due to the use of derivatives or other financial instruments that may magnify gains and losses beyond the initial investment. The Fund will utilize derivatives, such as options, to gain exposure to certain assets or markets with a smaller initial investment.

New Fund Risk. The Fund is a recently organized investment company with no operating history. As a result, prospective investors have no track record or history on which to base their investment decision. There can be no assurance that the Fund will grow to or maintain an economically viable size.

ETFs may trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value. ETF shares may only be redeemed at NAV by authorized participants in large creation units. There can be no guarantee that an active trading market for shares will exist. The trading of shares may incur brokerage.

This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. We make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein including third-party data sources. The views expressed are as of the publication date and subject to change at any time. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication without express written permission. References to other funds should not to be interpreted as an offer or recommendation of these securities.

The Fund is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. The fund’s investment advisor is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect.

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